Best Picture Odds Three Weeks Away from 92nd Academy Awards
The 92nd annual Academy Awards will take place in just under three weeks’ time, hailing from the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood on Sunday, Feb. 9th, at 8:00 PM ET.
The nominees were announced on Jan. 13th and, this year, nine films received a nod for Best Picture. They are, in alphabetical order (with director):
- 1917 (Sam Mendes)
- Ford vs Ferrari (James Mangold)
- The Irishman (Martin Scorsese)
- Jojo Rabbit (Taiki Waititi)
- Joker (Todd Phillips)
- Little Women (Greta Gerwig)
- Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
- Parasite (Bong Joon-ho)
According to Sascha Paruk of SportsBettingDime.com, whose site tracks the Academy Awards odds throughout the year, the favorite to win Best Picture has changed drastically in the week-plus since the nominations were announced.
On Jan. 13th, Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was favored to take home the statuette. But as of today, Sam Mendes’ 1917, which also won Best Drama at the Golden Globes, is now heavily favored.
The table below shows the odds for each Best Picture nominee on the day nominations were announced followed by its odds as Jan. 21st. The number in parentheses is the win probability implied by the odds.
Best Picture Nominees
| Film | Jan 13th Odds | Jan 21st Odds |
| 1917 | +275 (26.7% chance to win) | -115 (53.5% chance to win) |
| Once Upon a Time in Hollywood | +125 (44.4%) | +294 (25.4%) |
| Parasite | +350 (22.2%) | +344 (22.5%) |
| Joker | +750 (11.8%) | +1475 (6.3%) |
| The Irishman | +1100 (8.3%) | +2850 (3.4%) |
| Jojo Rabbit | +3050 (3.2%) | +5500 (1.8%) |
| Marriage Story | +2900 (3.3%) | +6375 (1.5%) |
| Little Women | +4500 (2.2%) | +9850 (1.0%) |
| Ford vs Ferrari | +55000 (0.2%) | +15000 (0.7%) |
Paruk notes that, the main reason sportsbooks shift their odds so drastically is because people are betting on certain films. In this case, bettors are clearly putting a lot of money on 1917 taking home Best Picture.
A win for 1917 would not be without precedent. The World War I epic would merely be the latest in a long list of war movies to take home Best Picture, a list which includes Saving Private Ryan, Platoon, Schindler’s List, Patton, and many more.
Mendes has also directed a Best Picture-winner before: American Beauty in 1999. A total of 12 directors (all men, shockingly) have directed multiple Best Picture-winners, showcasing the Academy’s penchant for re-rewarding those it reveres.
The main competitors for 1917 – Parasite and Once Upon a Time – can’t say the same. Neither Tarantino nor Joon-ho have directed a Best Picture-winner. In addition, Parasite is a foreign-language film from South Korea, and no foreign-language film has ever won Best Picture. Eleven have been nominated previously without success.
There is some sentiment that Tarantino is “due” for a win, and the Oscars have a history of rewarding industry legends who have previously been shutout (think Scorsese for The Departed or Denzel Washington for Training Day). But this is actually Q’s first-ever nomination for Best Picture. If the pro-Tarantino sentiment builds, he is more likely to take home Best Director (which he’s previously been nominated for twice) than see his film win the biggest award of the night.
Tune in to ABC on Feb. 9th to witness the latest installment in the Hollywood history books. As mentioned, the awards portion of the evening begins at 8:00 PM ET (5:00 PM PT), but the Live from the Red Carpet program starts at 6:30 PM ET.
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