Number Crunching Oscar Predictions

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MrGamez have used the last 20 years of Oscar winners to build profiles of the ideal candidates in each category.

With all eyes on the Oscars, everyone wants to know who’s going to win – and everyone has a few guesses. But for those who prefer a more scientific approach, MrGamez have the infographic for you.

The piece looks at Best Actor, Actress, Picture, Supporting Actor, Actress, and Director to offer the most likely options for each. The winners of each award since 1995 have been analysed in detail to reveal common characteristics – producing an “Oscar profile”, the perfect candidate for the prize.

Compare the profile created against the nominee it most resembles to see how close the two are – as well as some interesting details on the people and films poised to claim the award.


Number Crunching Oscar Predictions


View Interactive Version
(via Mr. Gamez).


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Familiar Features

There are even some common features across the different profiles – the most likely winners are all from the United States, and the most common genre to propel a person or picture to victory is drama.

The profile for successful supporting actors and actresses predicts winners with no previous Oscar nominations, while leads were more likely to have one under their belt already – and the winning director is most likely to have two.

The Top Picks

Based on the research, these are the key predictions for each category:

  • Best Actor in a Leading Role – Casey Affleck
  • Best Actress in a Leading Role – Emma Stone
  • Best Picture – La La Land
  • Best Director – Kenneth Lonergan
  • Best Actor in a Supporting Role – Mahershala Ali
  • Best Actress in a Supporting Role – Naomie Harris

See whether you agree with the predictions, and check out the rest of the research in the infographic here.

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